History as Predictor

History as Predictor

 We don’t take action because we think we cannot have a decent idea of what the future holds, but history often gives general guidelines, and statistical analysis of data sets can give reasonable probabilities of a given event.

 Certainly, in the broad sense, we do not know at all what will happen tomorrow.

 Yet, because history repeats itself, we can have a general idea of potential goings on, given a present set of circumstances and a knowledge of history.

 Example, a plant with poor safety procedures and habits generally will be more likely to have a major incident based on a series of lesser incidents and poor procedures and habits.

 In specific, statistical analysis of discreet data points does give reliable probability analysis for future events.  This truth is used for any number of choices made every day in the modern world.  One example would be the statistical failure rate of jet engines.  That rate is now so low that a mere two engine aircraft is considered reliable enough to be hours away from a diversion airport if needed, based on a single engine failure.

 In heavy industry and construction, a series of events (near misses, minor mishaps) is rightfully seen as a predictor of worse to come.  The statistics tell a tale.

 Forward-thinking leadership assesses likely events either in general due to history or in specific due to statistical analysis of a given event set.  Forward-thinking leadership doesn’t wait for something to happen and looks for future events to be prevented by present day action.